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51 CREDIT CARD INC. (2051 HK) - China’s top-notch online credit card mgmt. ecosystem

作者: Felix LUO
时间: 2018年09月14日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:51 CREDIT CARD INC. (2051 HK) - China’s top-notch online credit card mgmt. ecosystem
Analyst:Felix LUO
Report type:Company
Date:20180914
[Summary]

■ 51 Credit Card is China’s largest and earliest online credit card mgmt. platform with dynamic and self-reinforced ecosystem
■ We forecast 23% revenue CAGR and 35% adjusted net profits CAGR in 2017-20E
■ We initiate coverage at BUY on its ecosystem with TP of HK$8.47
Positive long-term potential on self-reinforced ecosystem
51 Credit Card (‘51’) is the first and largest online credit card mgmt. platform by MAU according to Oliver Wyman. It accumulated 81mn of registered users and 106.3mn credit cards under management as of 2017. 51 has experienced substantial growth primarily led by strong growth in credit facilitation business, with loan facilitation volume increased at a 2015-17 CAGR of 544.7% to RMB33,891mn in 2017. 51’s one-stop financial service in credit card application services, personal credit management, and online credit facilitation/investment services created a self-reinforced ecosystem, driving its future growth.
Near-term growth pressure
The company faces near-term growth pressure on regulatory tightening as well as weakened individual P2P investors’ confidence due to recent headwinds across the sector. We expect the total amount of loan facilitated to drop by 18.0% YoY to RMB27.8bn in 2018E, but to rebound in 2019E/2020E given its self-reinforced ecosystem.
Financial forecast
We expect 51’s total revenue to grow at 8%/35%/28% in FY18E/19E/20E, or CAGR of 23% in FY17-20E, driven by 51’s growing number of registered users and improving user penetration rates. We forecasted operating margin to decrease from 34% in 2017 to 18% in 2018E, but to rebound in 2019E/2020E. We forecast 51’s net profit to reach RMB1,137mn in 2019E and RMB1,705mn in 2020E (EPS of RMB0.95/1.43 in 2019E/2020E), with forecasted adjusted net profit to reach RMB531mn/1,247mn/1,815mn in 2018E/2019E/2020E growing at 35% CAGR during FY17-20E.
Valuation and rating
The stock is trading at 6.2x 19E P/E. We value 51 Credit Card (2051.HK) at 7.7x 2019E P/E, a 10% premium over the current average P/E (7.0x 2019E) of listed China online lenders given 51’s self-reinforced ecosystem. We initiate coverage on 51 Credit Card (2051.HK) at BUY on its unique ecosystem with TP of HK$8.47 (7.7x 2019E P/E). Key risks: ongoing regulatory tightening; further delay of registration process; credit risk; confidence of individual P2P investors further weakened. Key catalysts: recovery of loan outstanding balance in 4Q18 and 2019.

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