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Alibaba (BABA US) - Eyeing on lower tier market

作者: Leo LIU,Matt MA
时间: 2019年05月16日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:Alibaba (BABA US) - Eyeing on lower tier market
Analyst:Leo LIU,Matt MA
Report type:Company
Date:20190516
[Summary]

■ FY4Q19 sales/non-GAAP NI +1.9%/+23.8% vs consensus estimate ■ China retail eC tracked solid growth, eyeing on low tier cites ■ We rolled over valuation to FY20E and revised up TP to US$223 FY4Q19 rev reaccelerated w/ improved new retail contribution FY4Q19/FY19 rev reached RMB93.5bn/376.8bn, +51%/+51%YoY, beat consensus by 1.9%/0.5%. Core commerce rev reaccelerated to 54% YoY in Mar qtr vs. 40% YoY in Dec qtr, in-line with our estimation, mainly attributable to robust growth across China retail commerce’s sub segments. CMR/ Commission rev recorded 31%/30% YoY growth in Mar qtr, improved from 28%/24% YoY in Dec qtr, driven by Tmall physical goods GMV’s strong 33%YoY growth and introduction of recommendation feed. Direct sale biz Tmall Direct Import and Hema tracked 132% YoY growth in Mar qtr, accounted for 23% of China retail commerce rev (14% in Dec qtr), attributable to Co.’s effort in new retail. As of Mar 2019, BABA had 135 self-operated Hema stores in China. Life style services including Ele.me and Koubei only grew +2% QoQ despite Koubei’s full qtr contribution, due to the difficulty of penetrating in lower tier cities. Cloud: rev growth remained robust at 76% YoY (84% in Dec qtr) driven by enterprise customers’ increased spending. DME: rev decelerated to 8% YoY, due to lack of popular contents. Margin pressure persists; step up efforts in low tier cities GM/OPM: -7.6pp/-13.5pp QoQ respectively, due to 1) core commerce’s decreasing contribution in total rev due to seasonal effect; 2) direct sales biz’ increasing share in China retail commerce; and 3) increasing merchant subsidy in lower tier cities for consumer services. Adj. EBITA margin was 22.2%, slightly better than our previous expectation by 0.9pp, due to disciplined control on product development expenses. Non-GAAP net income reached RMB20.1bn/93.4bn in FY4Q19/FY19, beat consensus by 23.8%/ 3.9%. Going forward, we believe BABA’s upside potential lies in ad inventory increase based on currently testing recommendation feeds and sales star ad products. Mgmt. mentioned BABA will not aggressively expand the monetization of recommendation feed, but rather focus on subsidizing high quality merchants in FY20, so they can offer more price competitive products and life style services to customers in lower tier cities. In FY19 BABA’s annual active consumers on China retail marketplace reached 654mn, with net increase of 102mn from Mar 2018, in which 77% were from lower tier cities. FY20 GMV target tough; TP revised up to US$223 Mgmt guided FY20 revenue and GMV to reach RMB500bn (33% YoY) and US$ 1trn respectively, meaning a GMV reacceleration in FY20. With the successful expansion in offline and low tier markets, we feel Company’s target is tough but still achievable. In the LT, we are positive on BABA’s core commerce business and increments from new initiatives. Our TP is revised up to US$223, based on SOTP; implying 31x FY20E P/E. BABA is currently trading at 25x FY20E P/E.

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