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Alibaba (BABA US) - What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger

作者: Leo LIU,Matt MA,Calvin NG
时间: 2020年02月14日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:Alibaba (BABA US) - What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger
Analyst:Leo LIU,Matt MA,Calvin NG
Report type:Company
Date:20200214
[Summary]

■ FY3Q20 top-line/ NG NP +1%/+11% vs. consensus estimate
■ Epidemic brings ST headwind, and opens up opportunities in LT
■ Maintain BUY and TP revised up from USD222 to USD264
Solid result thanks to continuing improvement in operating efficiency
BABA received solid result in FY3Q20 as top-line and NG NP beat consensus by 1% and 11% respectively. Top-line +38% yoy and reached RMB161.5bn, mainly driven by 1p businesses (New retail, Kaola, Ali health, etc), Cainiao and Cloud. CMR/Commission grew 23%/16% yoy respectively, while Tmall physical goods GMV grew at 24% yoy. The discrepancy between growths in commission and Tmall GMV was due to: 1) preferential commission rate given to merchants from strategic categories; and 2) Tmall Supermarket continued to shift from 3P to 1P model. AAC received 18mn net additions qoq (3% qoq) and reached 711mn, indicated platform’s user growth has gradually plateaued. New retail/ Cross border eC tracked +128% yoy strong growth mainly thanks to the consolidation of Kaola. Cainiao ramped up 67% yoy growth (48% in Sep qtr) driven by increasing merchant adoption for cross-border eC biz. Local consumer services (LCS) and Alipay continued to generate synergy in low tier markets, while Ele.me has received 48% of its new customers from Alipay. Cloud Services received 62% yoy growth, and surpassed RMB10bn in quarterly rev for the first time. DME decelerated to 14% yoy despite the launch of two popular web dramas. Profitability improved driven by improved operating efficiency. Adj. EBITA margin reached 31%, +0.2pp yoy, while NG NPM reached 29%, +3.4pp yoy. NG NP grew 56% yoy to RMB46.5bn.
Epidemic crippled supply capabilities, but also opened opportunities
The COVID-19 epidemic has crippled supply capabilities especially in logistics. Therefore, mgmt. expects FY4Q20 rev growth to face strong headwind, and anticipates negative growth in marketplace retail biz and LCS. Meanwhile, BABA’s recent countermeasures to support SMEs should also weigh on earnings (Please see P.3). However, many opportunities were also opened up given people’s evolving consumption and working habits. Demand on rigid goods such as fresh food, daily consumables and FMCG all received stellar growth; while low tier markets’ online penetration also improved. Moreover, DingTalk experienced explosive user growth, driven by increasing demands on remote work, virtual classroom and health check-in features.
Maintain BUY; TP revised up from USD222 to USD264
Despite NT headwinds, in the LT BABA could further strengthen merchants’ trusts and exploit opportunities from customers’ evolving habits. We revised FY20E/21E/22E total rev and NG NP by -4.3%/1.4%/2.6% and -6.9%/-0.3%/2.1%, reflecting: 1) epidemic’s negative impacts; 2) positive stances on Cainiao, new retail and super mkt biz; 3) rev mix shifts from high margin marketplace retail biz to low margin direct sales biz; and 4) better operating efficiency. We revised up our TP from USD222 to USD264 as we rolled forward our valuation multiples to FY21E. Our TP implies 29x FY21E P/E.

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