| 作者： | Leo LIU,Matt MA,Calvin NG |
| 时间： | 2020年08月22日 |
| 重要性： | 一般报告 |
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| 阅读权限： | 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可阅读全文 |
| 摘要： | Report title:MEITUAN DIANPING (3690 HK) - A perfect timing to gain market share and step up investments Analyst:Leo LIU,Matt MA,Calvin NG Report type:Company Date:20200822 [Summary] ■ 2Q20 top-line/ adj. NP beat consensus by 5%/6690% ■ FD and NI received fast recovery while IHT’s recovery still takes time ■ Maintain NEUTRAL; TP revised up to HKD229 Stellar marketing rev and favorable seasonality led to FD margin surge MTDP received stellar 2Q20 results, with top-line/ adj. NP beat consensus by 5%/6690% respectively. Top line accelerated to +9% yoy and reached RMB24.7bn as FD and NI saw strong recovery post pandemic. FD rev accelerated to +13% yoy and reached RMB14.5bn, as order volume +7% yoy to 2.2bn (-17% yoy in 1Q20), and AOV increased to RMB49 yoy given higher contribution from branded restaurants. FD monetization rate maintained stable qoq at 13.4% given ongoing merchant support and increasing number of branded merchants with lower commission on Co.’s platform. But the largely increased online marketing revenue (1.7% of FD GTV) was quite a highlight. On cost end, rider cost per order declined yoy and qoq to RMB6.8, thanks to favourable seasonality and improving delivery efficiency. This has helped FD biz to achieve record high adj. OP at RMB1.3bn and adj. OPM at 8.6%. In 3Q20E, riding on FD industry’s ongoing recovery trend, order volume growth should further accelerate while AOV further normalize. Meanwhile, Co. would step up on user subsidies to further take market shares while its competitor stepping down. This combined with climbing rider cost should weigh on profitability. IHT recovering slowly; NI double down on grocery & bike sharing biz IHT rev recovered slowly and declined 13% yoy to RMB4.5bn. On one hand, In-store biz saw better recoveries in non-gathering categories like beauty, medical aesthetic, and pet, while demands on gathering activities like in-store dining and karaoke remained sluggish due to consumers’ lingering concerns and government restrictions. On the bright side, in-store merchants’ marketing demand rebounded well in 2Q driven by their urges to catch up on sales. On the other hand, Hotel and Travel biz still faced strong headwind from the pandemic, which caused domestic room nights to decline by 17% yoy in 2Q, but still recovered faster than peers. Collaboration with high star hotels increased as Co. focused on the “Hotel + X” initiatives to stimulate consumptions on high star hotels’ peripheral services such as in-hotel dining and events holding. Moreover, IHT’s adj OPM also reached a record high at 41.6%, attributable to: 1) Co.’s prudent marketing expense; and 2) lower margin hotel biz’s percentage decline in rev mix. Going forward, we expect both in-store transaction growth and hotel room nights growth to turn positive in 3Q20E. But Co.’s stepped-up promotions in high season and hotel biz’ increasing sales mix should weigh on adj. OPM as well. NI rev accelerated to +22% yoy and reached RMB5.6bn. Instashopping received stellar rev growth thanks to further expansion on product varieties, while MT Grocery not only expanded in Beijing and Shenzhen, but also tapped in Guangzhou. Meanwhile, with the ramping up of new MT Bikes and Ebikes, bike sharing biz’s economic model further improved and is still on the path to achieve profitability. Going forward, Co. should further step up investments in the two directions to achieve LT strategic goals. Maintain NEUTRAL; TP revised up from HKD200 to HKD229 In 2Q, adj. OPM +1.3pp yoy/+11.3pp qoq to 6.8%, while adj. NPM reached 11.0%, thanks to prudent cost control, led to RMB2.7bn in adj. NP. Going forward, we revised FY20E/21E/22E rev and adj. NP by 0.0%/+0.7%/0.0% and +17.5%/-3.5%/-5.2% respectively, reflecting company’s step-up on subsidies and NI investments going forward. We maintain NEUTRAL and revised up our TP from HKD200 to HKD229, mainly due to the revised up FD and Hotel valuation multiples given their better market positions. MTDP currently trades at 45.5x FY21E EV/EBITDA. |
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