Medium-term Investment Strategy Conference: “Post Quantity Easing Age”

China Merchants Securities (2011-07-11 18:50) [Full Text]

From June 15th to 16th, the two-day CMS medium-term investment strategy conference 2011 themed “Post Quantity Easing Age” was held in Shenzhen, in which CMS released a series of investment strategy reports concerning medium-term macro-economy, A-share market, H-share market ,company and industry of 2011.

Ding Anhau, CMS chief economist, gave a speech on China's macroeconomic situation. He pointed out that anti-inflation is still the primary goal of the macro-economy-control and the tightening policy will continue. In the premise of maintaining monetary tightening, together with the major developed gradually withdrawing from the quantity easing monetary policy, it is predicted that the probability of inflation controllability will be further improved after the second quarter and the prudent monetary policy will show some flexibility. The judge of low-to-high inflation in this year is maintained. The second quarter will be the high point of this round of inflation and the annual inflation forecast is adjusted to 4.5%. Taking into account the impact of inventory adjustment, it is predicted that the annual economy will show a high-low-high trend and the judge of 9.5% annual economic growth is maintained. 

In the investment strategy report of the second half of 2011, the R&D Center Strategy Team pointed out that the evaluation in the second half will be bottoming out, which is primarily due to the falling inflation that leads to weakened capital consumption of the real economy, and the quantity easing monetary policy. A positive attitude is held to the market in the second half 2011. The key points of allocation in the third quarter is to grasp the middle and lower reaches of manufacturing industry that benefit from eased cost pressures and increased gross profit. The underestimated bank and real estate can continue to be held. The cyclic stocks need to be determined till the fourth quarter. And there is still a chance in the basic consumer goods in the third quarter.

Mr. Song Min, Director of China Financial Research Center of Hong Kong University and Executive Director of HSBC Finance Institute of Peking University, made a keynote speech titled “Global Monetary Policy Outlook”. More than 50 key listed companies from 26 industries, such as Ping An, Sany Group, Shenhua Group, Saic Motor, China Yangtze Power, China Merchants Property Development, were invited to conduct in-depth communications with investors. 

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