招商期货 |  招商致远资本 |  招商投资 |  招商证券香港 |  English 官方微博 软件下载 登录web交易 专家在线 财管计划 理财超市 网上招聘 营业网点实时行情

Luye Pharma (2186 HK) - Risk/reward is becoming attractive

作者: Su Zhang,Hayden Zhang,Sam HU,Marcella Cheung
时间: 2019年06月21日
重要性: 一般报告
行业评级:
公司评级:
相关股票代码:
阅读权限:   该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可阅读全文
摘要: Report title:Luye Pharma (2186 HK) - Risk/reward is becoming attractive
Analyst:Su Zhang,Hayden Zhang,Sam HU,Marcella Cheung
Report type:Company
Date:20190621
[Summary]

■ After the stock retreated c.30% from its 2019 peak, we think the market has priced in Lipusu’s competition risk and Seroquel and Beixi’s potential 4+7 GPO tendering risk
■ We note the strong domestic sales YTD, and highlight that its rich late-stage R&D assets should deliver from 2020 onwards
■ We raised our TP to HK$8.4 (from HK$8.04) mainly on the pipeline updates; we left our 2019/20E NP largely unchanged. Upgrade to BUY from NEUTRAL on attractive risk/reward and rich pipeline catalysts in 2020-21E.
Competition risk apparently priced in
While Lipusu and Seroquel sales grew 17% and 14% ytd, we note Luye’s price shed c.30% since the April peak, mainly on the concerns of competition risk. Despite the likely NRDL coverage of competitor’s Abraxane in 4Q19, we cite Lipusu’s recent introduction as a 1L NSCLC treatment option in 2019 CSCO guidelines, which should provide some buffer (note NSCLC only accounts for 10% of Lipusu sales). As regards the risk of Seroquel entering 4+7 GPO this year, we think the promotion of Seroquel XR should largely offset the sales decline next year. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that with a 20% YoY sales decline in Lipusu, 10% YoYdecline in Seroquel and the flat sales in Beixi in 2020E, the current price still only values Luye at 11x 2020E PER, still close to the lowest quantile in its historical PER band.
Rich late-stage pipeline should come to fruition in 20E-21E
Mgmt. expected to receive Rykindo’s FDA approval in 1Q20 – we await PAI in July 19 and PDUFA in Jan 20. Meanwhile, Co. targets to launch 3-5 new drugs each year during 2019-22E, including the Avastin biosimilar (to launch in 2020) and Rotigotine ER and Paliperidone ER (2021), which should have blockbuster potential. Besides, Co. has licenced in the China right of Lurbinectedin in Apr 2019, which is a phase III clinical asset for SCLC. In 2019 ASCO, Lurbinectedin reported ORR of 35%, which compares to favourably to PD-1’s 10%-19% in similar setting, with similar DOR. We assume that the molecule should fetch RMB744mn peak sales after its commercialization in 2022.
TP raised on pipeline updates
We revised our SOTP-based TP up to HK$8.4 mainly on the integration of Lurbinectedin asset. The Co. currently trades at an attractive 10x/9x FY19/20E PER, pointing to 45% upside. We thus upgrade Luye to BUY from NEUTAL.

全文: 该研究报告需要相应权限才能阅读,请在此处 
如果您不能打开pdf格式的文件,请您先下载PDF阅读器
  - 钻石卡用户可阅读全文    - 钻石卡、金卡用户可阅读全文    - 钻石卡、金卡、银卡用户可阅读全文