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China Gas (384 HK) - Stellar result continues

作者: Scully TSOI,Eric SIU
时间: 2019年06月24日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:China Gas (384 HK) - Stellar result continues
Analyst:Scully TSOI,Eric SIU
Report type:Company
Date:20190623
[Summary]

■ FY19 recurrent profit beat our estimates by 5%
■ Guiding a gas sales vol. growth of >25% YoY and a stable gas dollar margin of RMB0.6/ cu m in FY20
■ Revise up our earnings estimates in FY20-21 by 2.8-3.6% after assuming higher margins. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$38.3
FY19 results beat
China Gas’s FY19 recurrent profit surged 28% YoY to HK$8.2bn, beating our and market consensus by 5% and 3%, respectively. The stronger-than-expected result was mainly due to the higher margins of gas sales and VAS business. The co. proposed a final DPS of HK$0.36, leading a full year DPS to HK$0.44, up 26% YoY.
Maintain gas sales vol. guidance of >25% YoY in FY20
Benefiting from coal-to-gas conversion, China Gas’s retail gas sales vol. reached 14.7bn cu m, implying a 25% YoY growth (C&I: +28% and residential households: +29%). Mgmt. maintains its retail gas sales vol. guidance of >25% YoY in FY20-21, as 70% of its projects are located in north of Yangtze River, which has a higher coal-to-gas conversion demand; for example, 70% of gas sales to C&I customers was driven by coal-to-gas conversion. Mgmt. hasn’t factored in the extra gas sales contribution in three North-eastern provinces, which will be accelerated by the import of Russian gas starting from Dec 2019. Meanwhile, China Gas’s gas dollar margin remained steady at RMB0.61/cu m in FY19 thanks to better preparation. Mgmt. guides a stable dollar margin of RMB0.6/cu m in FY20.
Confident to achieve rural connection target in FY20
China Gas connected 5.1mn residential households, up 30.1% YoY. In particular, it connected 2.4mn rural households, exceeding mgmt.’s previous guidance by 20%. Up to 31 Mar 2019, China Gas signed connection contracts with >7mn rural households, leaving >3.5mn rural households in the pipeline. So we see a high chance for the co. to out-beat its rural connection target of 2.8mn households in FY20. As of Mar 2019, 930k out of 3.5mn connected rural households were supplied with gas. The co. has collected 86% of A/R related to these 930k rural connection. The co. still had ~RMB4.8bn of A/R (related to rural connection) outstanding. The co. intends to supply gas to 2mn rural households in FY20 and expects to collect 80% of the A/R by then.

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