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CMS Strategy Weekly (24 Jun 2019) - All eyes on G20

作者: Jessie GUO,Edith Qian
时间: 2019年06月24日
重要性: 一般报告
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摘要: Report title:CMS Strategy Weekly (24 Jun 2019) - All eyes on G20
Analyst:Jessie GUO,Edith Qian
Report type:Strategy
Date:20190624
[Summary]

■ Leaders of China and US to hold talks during G20 summit in Japan on Jun 28-29
■ Fed dropped patient approach and opened door to potential rate cut amid growing uncertainties
■ Maintain cautious view in NT

What’s new. 1). China-US trade friction: On Jun 18, US President Donald Trump held phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two sides agreed to meet at the G20 summit in Japan on June 28-29, and trade talks between the two countries would resume. On Jun 19, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he will meet with Chinese counterpart before Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit. On Jun 21, US expanded China blacklist to include five Chinese supercomputer firms over national security concerns. On Jun 22, People’s Daily said China has the strength and patience to withstand the trade war, and will fight to the end if US persists. 2). On Jun 19, Fed announced to keep the benchmark rate in a target range of 2.25%-2.5%. It dropped the word “patient” from its policy statement and said economic outlook uncertainties have increased, opening the door for a potential rate cut in the future. “Fed’s dot plot” signals that around half of the FOMC members see rate cut by the end of 2019. Projection of PCE/core PCE inflation for 2019 were cut to 1.5%/1.8% from 1.8%/2.0% made in March. Real GDP growth projection for 2019 remained unchanged at 2.1%, while that for 2020 was revised up from 1.9% to 2.0%. 3). On Jun 17, Shanghai-London Stock Connect program launched as Huatai Securities became the first company to list and trade on LSE via the program.

Macro data. US: 1). June Markit manufacturing/services PMI dropped to 50.1/50.7, the worst reading since Sep 2009/Mar 2016 (May: 50.5/50.9). 2). May existing home sales rose 2.5% MoM, beating expectations. 3). May housing starts dropped 0.9% MoM, below expectations. 4). May building permits climbed 0.3% MoM, in line with consensus.

Stock market update. HSI/MXCN/CSI300 gained 5.0%/4.9%/4.9% over the past week respectively. MXCN: Div. Financials (+8.2%) and Insurance (+7.3%) outperformed while Utilities (+0.6%) and Real Estate (+1.8%) lagged. A share: Div. Financials (+10.7%) and Insurance (+9.6%) outperformed while Real Estate (+2.4%) and Utilities (+2.9%) lagged. HSI/MXCN/CSI300 trade at forward P/E of 11.1x/12.0x/12.3x respectively (vs. 3-yr median of 11.7x/12.2x/12.7x).

Our view. Strong rally last week was mainly due to market reaction to resumption of China/US trade negotiation. However, the announcement that five more Chinese tech firms were added to blacklist suggested that deep conflict between the two sides remains unresolved. Market might have overacted to upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at G20 summit. We remind investors of the following potential risks: 1). Negotiation might not be as smooth as expected; 2). 2H macro data and interim results might miss forecasts. Key risks to watch: worse-than-expected macro and monetary data; potential pullback of US market; escalation of the Sino-US trade tension; strengthening of USD. Key catalysts: More easing policies; bilateral solution between the US and China; weakening of USD.

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