| 作者： | Kevin CHEN,Clint SU |
| 时间： | 2020年08月24日 |
| 重要性： | 一般报告 |
| 行业评级： | |
| 公司评级： | |
| 相关股票代码： | |
| 阅读权限： | 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可阅读全文 |
| 摘要： | Report title:AAC Technologies (2018 HK) - GM missed expectations; Optics gradually unfolds Analyst:Kevin CHEN,Clint SU Report type:Company Date:20200824 [Summary] ■ 2Q20 revenue beat, but GM missed as ASP pressure/product mix shift prevented meaningful margin recovery ■ Robust Optics growth continued with improving ASP/shipments; new CCM and WLG products to fuel future growth potentials ■ Recent strategic investors represent a strong testament to AAC’s Optics capability, maintain BUY 2Q20 recovery missed elevated expectations AAC revenue rose 20% qoq (+12% yoy) to RMB4.3bn (4% beat) in 2Q20, with recovery across segments driven by work resumption. GM improved only 0.2ppt qoq to 23.3%, missing expectations (ours: 27.5%), mainly due to 1) ASP pressure on legacy products, 2) unfavorable product mix shift (more PM sales, slowdown in specs upgrade). Net profit fell 21% yoy to RMB268mn (vs. RMB391mn consensus). Optics progress continues; new products to fuel growth Optics revenue grew 55% qoq (+43% yoy) to RMB380mn (9% of 2Q20 revenue), as shipment and ASP both improved on better product mix and utilization. Optics GM rose 4ppt qoq to 13.8% in 2Q20, and management expects its lens GM to rise towards 35% in 3Q20. 6P monthly shipments could exceed 5mn/7mn units in 3Q/4Q20. We expect robust Optic growth to continue, driven by 1) CCM shipments to start in 3Q20 (capacity 7mn/ month); 2) WLG shipments in 4Q20 (target capacity 20mn, ASP Trimmed estimate/TP; shares re-rating to continue We maintain positive on AAC, given our expectations of 1) 2H re-rating driven by product cycle, 2) improving Optic contribution for future growth. We prefer Apple (AAPL US) supply chain over Android. The addition of strategic investors is a strong testament to AAC’s Optic capability and potentials, in our view, and improved traction with Xiaomi/OPPO helps offset Huawei order disruptions. We lower our 2020/21 EPS estimates 14%/3% and trim TP to HKD68 (from HKD70), still based on 24x 2021E P/E. Recommend BUY on share pull-back. |
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