| 作者： | Jessie GUO,Edith Qian,Harrington ZHANG |
| 时间： | 2020年08月24日 |
| 重要性： | 一般报告 |
| 行业评级： | |
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| 阅读权限： | 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可阅读全文 |
| 摘要： | Report title:CMS Strategy Weekly (24 Aug 2020) - COVID-19 outbreak eased in US but resurged in EU Analyst:Jessie GUO,Edith Qian,Harrington ZHANG Report type:Strategy Date:20200824 [Summary] ■ US took another step to ramp up pressure on Huawei ■ Biden formally nominated as Democratic presidential candidate ■ Resurgence of COVID-19 outbreak poses a threat to EU recovery What’s new. 1) Sino-US relationship: On August 17, the US Commerce Department issued new rules, prohibiting non-US companies from selling chips made using US technology to Huawei without a special license. The new rule expanded previous restrictions on Huawei’s access to crucial components, and was intended to cut off the company’s efforts to circumvent the previous restrictions. On August 20, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed during its regular press conference that the US and China have agreed to hold meeting in the coming days to review the progress of the phase one trade deal, six months after it became effective. 2) US presidential election: Joe Biden was formally nominated as the Democratic nominee for US president. Kalama Harris became the first African American with South Asian background to be on a major political party's presidential election ticket. 3) COVID-19 outbreak development: Data shows continued sign of easing in the US, especially in the sunbelt states. Nationwide average daily new cases over the past week dropped 18% compared to the week before, while those in California, Florida, Georgia and Texas dropped 34%, 35%, 22% and 16% respectively. Meanwhile, EU faces resurgent threat as number of new cases picks up. Average daily new cases over the past week rose 52%, 18% and 28% in Spain, France and Germany respectively. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on European leaders to work together to avoid renewed lockdowns. Macro data update. China: July public budget revenue grew 4.3% yoy (June: 3.2%); July public budget spending surged 18.5% yoy (June: -14.4%). US: 1) July housing starts were 1,496,000 in annualised term, beating consensus (June: 1,220,000). 2) July building permits authorised were 1,495,000 in annualised term, beating consensus (June: 1,258,000). 3) Initial claims for week ended August 15 were 1,106,000, worse than consensus (previous week: 971,000). 4) August Markit mfg PMI flash was 53.6, beating consensus (July: 50.9); August services PMI flash was 54.8, also beating consensus (50.0). Stock market update. MXCN/CSI300 rose by 2.2%/0.3% over the past week while HSI corrected by 0.3%. MXCN: Consumer Discretionary (+4.9%) and Communication Services (+2.4%) outperformed while Utilities (-1.9%) and Industrials (-1.0%) lagged. A shares: Utilities (+3.2%) and Consumer Staples (+2.5%) outperformed while Information Technology (-1.2%) and Real Estate (-0.6%) lagged. HSI/MXCN/CSI300 trade at forward P/E of 10.9x/15.7x/14.6x respectively (vs. 3-yr median of 11.2x/12.4x/12.4x). Our view. There is no change of our view on major markets. We have projected HSI to stay trend-ranged since April. Its performance so far has been in line with our expectation. Key catalysts/risks: 1). Interim results; 2). macro data; 3). COVID-19 infection development; 4) Sino-US relationship. |
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